Increasing clouds with little temperature change. Precip possible within 24 to 48 hrs

Astronomical Data

Sunrise: 6:20
Sunset: 19:58
Moonrise: 2:15
Moonset: 13:17
Moon Day: 23

Current Conditions

14:42 on 4/30/16
Temperature: 64.8° F
Pressure: 1009.829 in. (Falling)


Across the yard

 

A look North
UVI EXPOSURE LEVEL
0-2 Minimal
3-4 Low
5-6 Moderate
7-9 High
10+ Very High
Weather Almanac
Station: Raleigh (KRDU)
Normal High: 76°F Normal Low: 52°F
Record High: 90°F in 1906 Record Low: 33°F in 1961
Today's High: 65.6°F Today's Low: 58.3°F
Normal YTD Rain (KRDU): 13.43 in. Normal MTD Rain (KRDU): 2.98 in.
Actual YTD Rain: 5.78 in. Actual MTD Rain: 0.00 in.
5 Day Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear
Chance T-storms Chance T-storms Chance Rain Chance Rain Chance Rain
79°F 84°F 74°F 73°F 73°F
65°F 58°F 56°F 55°F 51°F
temperature color key

NOAA Weather

Weather Summary


648 
FXUS62 KRAH 301750
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT --WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTH...AND MUCH WARMER ONES TO THE SOUTH-- WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NC TODAY. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN RESULT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 1050 AM SATURDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW HAS ADVECTED A COOL MOIST STABLE AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC WITH LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVERING THE AREA. 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL TRAP/CONFINE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SO ANY EROSION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS...IN TURN WILL YIELD A WIDE VARIANCE IN
MAX TEMPS...POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
IF PARTIAL SUN DEVELOPS SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH 80.

ASIDE FROM A STRAY PATCH OF DRIZZLE...MOST OF CENTRAL NC CAN EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z...AND MORE SO
AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS MOVE INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY WHICH
IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR PRETTY ANEMIC ACROSS THIS REGION AND ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO
ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG A SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TO LAURINBURG LINE
CURRENTLY LOOKING PRETTY SLIM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. -WSS


TONIGHT: NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE ALREADY STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL
CAUSE LOW CLOUD BASES TO FURTHER LOWER/RE-DEVELOP WHERE ANY BREAKS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RAN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING-
EARLY TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND STATIC
STABILITY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. AS SUCH...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...SOME POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
LATE OWING TO MIXING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

A PORTION OF THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL EJECT
EASTWARD AND RACE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...SHUNTING THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD
IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. ONGOING OVER SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
NC...OWING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...WILL LIKELY BLEED INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITHOUT BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE
AMIDST PW OF 1.25-1.50".  CAPE GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE HIGHER IN THE
WEST..THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MORNING PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MODEST...30-35KT ACROSS THE NORTH IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
MAIN LIMITATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF A
FOCUS...OUTSIDE IF A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  THUS..ITS HEARD TO
HAVE MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SEVERE STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 SE.

THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS INT
HE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW VEERS TO MORE
WESTERLY AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOWS 61-68 WEST TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY... 

DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.  

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. 

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS

KRAX (Raleigh-Durham, NC current local radar)

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic Southeast Sector

NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC

NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC Weather.gov > Raleigh/Durham, NC