Carolina Weather
Your local weather updated continuously every 10 minutes (24/7) from Clayton, NC (Flowers Community)
Location: Clayton, NC
Lat: 35° 37' 31" N   Long: 78° 19' 44" W
Updated every 10 minutes (24/7)
Southeast radar
Current Conditions
17:49 on 12/18/14

Temperature
42.9° F

Barometric Pressure
1009.225 in. (Rising)
Carolina Weather - Current Conditions
ASTRONOMICAL DATA
Sunrise
7:17
Sunset
17:02
Moonrise
3:35
Moonset
14:37
Moon Day:   26
Moon Phase
Moon Day: 26

5 Day Forecast
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear
Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy Rain Partly Cloudy Chance Rain
54°F 52°F 45°F 52°F 54°F
34°F 32°F 30°F 32°F 37°F
Increasing clouds with little temperature change. Precip possible within 24 to 48 hrs
NOAA image KRAX (Raleigh-Durham current local radar)

Current Local Radar
Raleigh-Durham
KRAX

750 
FXUS62 KRAH 182028
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL 
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THROUGH 
FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON 
FRIDAY AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVE 
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
 
 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 920 AM THURSDAY... 

AN ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LIGHT 
RAIN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE...FOCUSED NEAR THE H925-H85 
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GREATEST...CONTINUES TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO THE 
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST 
AND THE FORCING DECOUPLES.  SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL 
NC.  EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY WITH ALL 
MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FT.   WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  THERE WILL PERIODS OF SUN 
MIXED IN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS (POTENTIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED 
AT TIMES THIS MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES 
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF 49-55.  IF ANYTHING...THEY WILL END 
UP ON THE COOLER SIDE.

SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE 
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN A RATHER WEAK 
MSLP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING 
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW US 
TO COOL QUITE NICELY TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW MID 20S) IN THE USUAL 
RURAL COLD LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL 
SLOWLY SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PARENT 
HIGH MOVES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE MIN 
BETWEEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND MOISTURE SPREADING IN AHEAD OF 
SATURDAY'S SYSTEM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 
20S..THOUGH WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS BASED ON 
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 
50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S 
(ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST) PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE ROBUST CLOUD 
COVER.

SATURDAY... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA REGION 
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY AND 
THEN TOWARD OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND 
TOWARD MORE DEAMPLIFICATION WITH THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY MORNING.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SURFACE 
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST IS MUCH WEAKER AND 
ESSENTIALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
EASTERN CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO 
CENTRAL NC.  WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THE HIGH 
IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPLY DRY AIR INTO NC THAN 
FORECAST A FEW DAYS AGO.  HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC 
FORCING...THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT PRECIP...AND THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF 
ARE ALL DRY OR NEARLY DRY.  

CAN'T HELP BUT CONTINUE TO CUT BACK ON POPS BASED ON RECENT 
GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN 
ASSORTMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A 
SMALL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO 
CENTRAL NC.  SHOULD NOTE THAT A SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH COULD STILL 
CREATE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS PTYPE NOMOGRAMS HOVER AROUND THE WINTRY 
MIX AND WETBULB PROFILES REMAIN CURIOUSLY CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE 
LOWEST 10K FT.  THIS IS A FINE LINE AS WELL...AS THE SHIFT WOULD 
ALSO BRING SOME WARM AIR BACK NORTH.  WILL REDUCE POPS TO CHANCE 
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW-END LIKELY (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z) 
NEAR THE SC BORDER...WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH BUT FOLLOWS A 
CONSERVATIVE TREND.  WILL ALSO RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THICK CLOUD COVER WOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS IN 
THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT....ALL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART 
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SCATTERING 
OF CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUICK TO BRING MOISTURE BACK TOWARD 
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER SYSTEM GETS GOING BY LATE 
SUNDAY.  LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SHORT WAVE 
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE 
REGION. THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CA 
ON FRIDAY REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK 
FOR INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH DEVELOPS 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SPREADS 
INTO THE CAROLINAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY 
MORNING. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE 
INCREASED POPS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...THESE 
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AND WET BULB ZERO 
VALUES HOLDING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD PRECLUDE AND PTYPE ISSUES. 

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE 
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER 
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE 
SCATTERED AND LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STRONGEST 
FORCING ABATES BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES 
WILL PERSIST AS A MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. 

AN IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE 
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CARVING OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE 
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON WEDNESDAY AS IT BROADENS AND  
REACHES THE EAST COAST. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE 
VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE 
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY 
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINA ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT STRONG 
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF 
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG 
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 40KTS PROGGED AT 1 KFT NEAR RDU ON 
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A WESTERLY WIND OF 40 KTS FORECAST AT RDU AT 
1.5 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT 
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW FOR BOUNDARY 
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD 
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 AS NOTED BY THE 
GFS...LEADS TO AN ELEVATED SHERB VALUE THAT SUGGESTS SOME HIGHER 
IMPACT HSLC CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR 
CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE 
TRIAD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURES 
SHOULDN'T FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STRONG 
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAISED MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE TO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 
50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN 
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHILLIER MAXES IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 EXPECTED 
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. -BLAES 
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 1240 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE 
TAF PERIOD.  A WEEK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS VIRGINIA THIS 
EVENING...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT OVER NC WILL BE INCREASING MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS....MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE 
LIGHT OUR OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO 4-6KT DURING THE 
DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE 
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER....THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS ONCE EXPECTED. 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SUNDAY... BEFORE 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF... SPREADING 
RAIN INTO CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH SUB-VFR 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$ 

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD/BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...BLS

UV Index
0.0
Solar Radiation
0
UVI EXPOSURE LEVEL
0-2 Minimal
3-4 Low
5-6 Moderate
7-9 High
10+ Very High
Weather Almanac
Station: Raleigh (KRDU)
Normal High: 50°F Normal Low: 31°F
Record High: 77°F in 1924 Record Low: 7°F in 1973
Today's High: 51.3°F Today's Low: 33.3°F
Normal YTD Rain (KRDU): 34.68 in. Normal MTD Rain (KRDU): 0.53 in.
Actual YTD Rain: 52.19 in. Actual MTD Rain: 1.56 in.
Revised: December 18 2014 17:51:14.