Increasing clouds with little temperature change

Astronomical Data

Sunrise: 6:20
Sunset: 20:22
Moonrise: 18:46
Moonset: 4:24
Moon Day: 13

Current Conditions

9:21 on 7/29/15
Temperature: 79.4° F
Pressure: 1006.540 in. (Rising)


Across the yard

 

A look North
UVI EXPOSURE LEVEL
0-2 Minimal
3-4 Low
5-6 Moderate
7-9 High
10+ Very High
Weather Almanac
Station: Raleigh (KRDU)
Normal High: 0°F Normal Low: 0°F
Record High: 0°F in 0 Record Low: 0°F in 0
Today's High: 79.5°F Today's Low: 72.2°F
Normal YTD Rain (KRDU): 0.00 in. Normal MTD Rain (KRDU): 0.00 in.
Actual YTD Rain: 27.24 in. Actual MTD Rain: 4.84 in.
5 Day Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear
Chance T-storms Mostly Cloudy Chance T-storms Chance T-storms Chance T-storms
92°F 93°F 91°F 89°F 89°F
72°F 73°F 72°F 71°F 70°F
temperature color key

NOAA Weather

Weather Summary


520 
FXUS62 KRAH 291043 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
640 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.  A COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TODAY 
AS THE CENTRAL US RIDGE BUILDS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 
VORTICITY SUGGEST A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS 
THE AREA...BUT NEITHER APPEARS TO BE VERY STRONG AND THERE SHOULDN'T 
BE MUCH IMPACT GIVEN THAT HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WILL 
BE WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE MID 
ATLANTIC STATES APPEARS TO HAVE SUNK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN 
RESPONSE TO THE LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER...NOW 
SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DAVIDSON COUNTY NORTHEAST TO GRANVILLE COUNTY. 
 THIS COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FROM SOME WIDELY SCATTERED 
CONVECTION...IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HINT AT DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  IF NOTHING 
FORMS ON THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR IT WASHES OUT...THEN CONVECTION WILL 
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND SHOULDN'T HAVE MUCH 
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE EAST GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.  
OVERALL...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE FULL SUN 
POTENTIAL AS IR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD 
COVER TO INHIBIT HEATING.  HIGHS 88-93.

CONVECTION SHOULD SEND A LITTLE SOONER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF 
HEATING AND NO SUPPORT FROM DISTURBANCES ALOFT.  THERE IS A 
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THAT IS FORECAST TO 
DIVE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY 
CAUSE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST..BY EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE 
OVERNIGHT FORECAST DRY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

 
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 400 AM WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT...ATTENDANT TO AN OCCLUDED LOW WAY TO THE NORTH OVER 
CENTRAL CANADA...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE 
PREFRONTAL LEE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING 
FRONT... BUT WITH INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY 
WEAK...MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE 
IS A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY 
THURSDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...AND EVOLUTION 
OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF/HOW IT COULD IMPACT 
CONVECTION INITIATION ON THURSDAY.
 
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...BUT POOR 
DIURNAL TIMING AND FORCING LIMITED TO JUST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE 
SHOULD RESULT IN JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE 
WEATHER. 
 
HIGHS THURSDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE AREA AS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT AND 850MB TEMPS REACH 19-20C.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY DO 
NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO IMPACT HIGHS.  LOWS THURSDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ESPECIALLY INT HE 
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOW REACH BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...  

FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. 
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PERSISTENCE OF AN 
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT 
TERM...COINCIDENT WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE 
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS 
REGION.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE MODELS AGREE THAT A COLD FRONT 
RELATED TO A POTENT  UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS MORNING 
WILL BE INVOF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FRI MORNING...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS 
GRADUALLY DIFFUSING BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND 
STORMS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FRI-SUN...WHILE A DRIER 
AIR MASS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN... 
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART...OF NC. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT 
NOTED...ANY NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION AND 
ASSOCIATED AXIS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE --CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES AOA TWO INCHES-- WOULD RESULT IN A WETTER WEEKEND FOR 
PARTICULARLY EAST-CENTRAL NC. 

THOUGH MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY THE EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE 
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES HAVE HINTED THAT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE  
MAY GET DRAWN NORTH/INCORPORATED INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BY LATE 
SUN-MON...AT WHICH TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE 
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY... 
 
DENSE FOG THIS AT KINT THIS MORNING IS VERY ISOLATED AND WILL 
IMPROVE QUICKLY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY 13Z.  
ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF KRDU/KRWI 
AND ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GENERALLY AWAY FROM 
THE TERMINALS.  SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIMITED AND 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND 
MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE MORE SO THAN IN PRIOR DAYS.  AS SUCH...WILL 
NOT MENTION THUNDER IN THE CURRENT TAF...BUT CHANCES WILL BE 
GREATEST AT KGSO AND KINT ONCE AGAIN.  STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN 
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IN PAST NIGHTS 
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BETTER 
AGREEMENT ON AMONG MODELS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM KFAY TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON 
THURSDAY...WITH SOME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS FRONT DOES PUSH ALL 
THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE 
LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...22

KRAX (Raleigh-Durham, NC current local radar)

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic Southeast Sector

NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC

NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC Weather.gov > Raleigh/Durham, NC