Partly cloudy and cooler

Astronomical Data

Sunrise: 6:49
Sunset: 19:40
Moonrise: 23:13
Moonset: 12:11
Moon Day: 20

Current Conditions

0:19 on 9/3/15
Temperature: 74.4° F
Pressure: 1004.258 in. (Falling)


Across the yard

 

A look North
UVI EXPOSURE LEVEL
0-2 Minimal
3-4 Low
5-6 Moderate
7-9 High
10+ Very High
Weather Almanac
Station: Raleigh (KRDU)
Normal High: 86°F Normal Low: 66°F
Record High: 99°F in 2010 Record Low: 50°F in 1958
Today's High: 74.9°F Today's Low: 74.4°F
Normal YTD Rain (KRDU): 34.02 in. Normal MTD Rain (KRDU): 0.00 in.
Actual YTD Rain: 29.26 in. Actual MTD Rain: 0.00 in.
5 Day Forecast
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Clear Clear Clear Clear Clear
Mostly Cloudy Chance T-storms Chance T-storms Chance T-storms Chance T-storms
93°F 91°F 84°F 84°F 85°F
69°F 69°F 67°F 66°F 66°F
temperature color key

NOAA Weather

Weather Summary


823 
FXUS62 KRAH 030314
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
1114 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FROM CENTRAL VA TO EASTERN NC 
THROUGH EARLY THU. A LEE TROUGH WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER CENTRAL 
NC UNTIL A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE 
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE EARLIER FORCED 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER VA...WHICH HAVE 
SUBSEQUENTLY PROPAGATED GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN NC 
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY 
STRETCHED AT 0145Z FROM NEAR KBUY TO KRDU TO KASJ. WHILE SHOWERS 
HAVE PERCOLATED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ORIENTATION 
OF SHEAR VECTORS (FROM THE NW) RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY HAVE FOCUSED 
STRONG AND SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE ALONG THE SE-FACING 
OUTFLOW FLANK...AND THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE AND FAVOR FAR EASTERN 
HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FOR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DURING 
THE NEXT HOUR. 

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED OR WIDELY SO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL 
OCCASIONALLY PERCOLATE...ALONG OUTFLOW...SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE 
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 
FORCING FOR ASCENT AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE PAMLICO 
SOUND BY 12Z - TIMING WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES MOVING 
SOUTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA BY AROUND 09Z. PERSISTENCE LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 333 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NRN NC COAST 
THU MORNING... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK TRAILING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING BACK 
ACROSS THE NRN CWA. THIS TRAILING VORTICITY WILL SINK SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS THE SRN CWA 
LATE THU THROUGH THU NIGHT. PW VALUES WILL HAVE FALLEN WITH A 
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AND SUBSIDING COLUMN BEHIND THE CORE OF THE 
EXITING WAVE... SO EXPECT ANY SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TO BE FAIRLY 
SMALL GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELD... LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR 
ASCENT... AND LIMITED CAPE. WILL RETAIN AN ISOLATED POP JUST ACROSS 
THE SOUTH AND SE NEAR THE SHEAR AXIS AND WHERE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS 
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER. ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE 
REGION FROM THE SW LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... BUT THIS APPEAR TO 
CONTRIBUTE VERY LITTLE DYNAMIC FORCING... AND WITH LACK OF HEATING 
AFTER SUNSET... COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH THIS SECOND 
WAVE. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE NE CWA THROUGH 
THE EVENING... THEN TREND POPS DOWN BELOW 15% OVERNIGHT. THIS 
PATTERN CORRELATES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SREF'S HIGHER CHANCES OF 
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH GOOD MIXING AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL 
THICKNESSES... EXPECT STEAMY HIGHS OF 90-95. LOWS 67-72 UNDER PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A 
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND THAT WILL PUSH 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET UP A 
WEDGE FRONT THAT IN PATTERN WILL BE REMINISCENT OF A COLD AIR 
DAMMING SCENARIO BUT WITHOUT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WE USUALLY SEE 
CONTRIBUTING TO MORE STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE TRIAD. THE FEATURE 
THROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON 
SATURDAY AND BRING IN MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S).

AS THE WEEKEND CONTINUES...A VERY WEAK LOW OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST 
WILL ATTEMPT TO HELP FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE CAROLINA 
COAST BUT THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS 
TIME. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY 
WEAK BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE AN UPTICK IN POPS ACROSS EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS 
DURING PEAK HEATING WITH PSEUDO WEDGE FRONT BOUNDARY HELPING TO 
INITIATE CONVECTION. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS TO BE 
DETERMINED AND THUS THE AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY LOW 
CONFIDENCE BUT GENERAL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY 
FURTHER EAST.

ON TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES WILL START 
A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK. THE MAIN 
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES ALONG THE 
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR DIURNAL 
SHOWERS OR STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z...PERHAPS LINGERING A FEW HRS 
LONGER (06-09Z) AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD 
GENERALLY WANE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITH TIME AS THE NOCTURNAL 
INVERSION STRENGTHENS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG WILL BE 
POSSIBLE AT THE RWI TERMINAL IN VICINITY OF SUNRISE. AFTER 
SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF 
PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM 
THE N/NE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
REMINISCENT OF COLD AIR DAMMING. AS A RESULT...SUB-VFR CEILINGS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26 
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS 
AVIATION...VINCENT

KRAX (Raleigh-Durham, NC current local radar)

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic Southeast Sector

NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC

NWS Forecast Office, Raleigh, NC Weather.gov > Raleigh/Durham, NC